Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

Part 1

 

Governor’s Election

Ravens Stadium

Comptroller Election

Attorney General Election

 

September 2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott      410-461-5744

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from September 12th through September 15th, 2002.  A total of 823 registered voters in Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in this year’s general election were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender and race.

 

 

 

 

 

 

           

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         409   (50%)

 

White        617   (75%)

 

Eastern Shore                85    (10%)

Female      414   (50%)

Black        197   (24%)

Baltimore City             84    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   9   

Baltimore Suburbs     269    (33%)

Party Registration

 

Washington Suburbs  293    (36%)

Democrat         469   (57%)

 

Western Maryland       92    (11%)

Republican       263   (32%)

 

 

Independent     91     (11%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings

 

Eastern Shore                      -           includes voters in these counties: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

 

 

Baltimore City                -           includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

 

 

Baltimore Suburbs             -           includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

 

 

Washington Suburbs      -            includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.

 

 

Western Maryland              -           includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

 

 

 


Analysis

 

 

Gubernatorial Election

 

The trend lines have crossed – 2nd District Congressman Bob Ehrlich has taken the lead in the Maryland governor's race, edging Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend by one point, 47% to 46%, with 7% undecided.  Ehrlich trailed Townsend 47% to 43% in our August survey, and was seven points back in July, when the race stood at 48% to 41%.

 

Ehrlich’s made significant gains in Baltimore City (up seven points to 26%), in the Baltimore suburbs (up from 58% to 62%), in Western Maryland (up from 53% to 57%), and especially on the Eastern Shore (up 10 points, to 53%), where the voters are reverting to type after an extended period of flirtation with Townsend's candidacy.  Townsend, however, picked up an additional two points in the DC suburbs, increasing her share of the vote there from 56% to 58%.

 

The gender gap is widening, with Ehrlich winning 56% of men to Townsend's 37%, and Townsend capturing 55% of women, to Ehrlich's 38%.  Whites voters are giving a larger percentage of their votes to Ehrlich (57%, up from 52%), while Townsend's numbers with whites slid from 38% to 35%.  Meanwhile, the work Townsend has been doing to shore up her base among African-Americans appears to be paying off.  Her share of the black vote has increased from 75% to 81%, while Ehrlich's standing fell off by a single point to 14%. 

 

Ehrlich is racking up an amazing 87% of the Republican vote (Townsend gets just 7% of GOPers), while Ehrlich is stealing nearly a quarter (24%) of the Democrats, as Townsend's share of her own partisans has slipped from 72% to 69%.  Ehrlich leads among independents 51% to 39%, up from 47% to 33% in August.

 

Townsend's name ID troubles continue to dog her candidacy.  While she is recognized by all but 1% of general election voters, just 39% have a favorable impression of the Lieutenant Governor and an uncomfortable 35% hold a negative view (up from 31% in August).  Ehrlich's overall name ID is up to 91% now, with favorables at 44%.  His negative rating has also taken a jump, from 14% to 21%, but his positives still outnumber his negatives by a two-to-one margin.

 

While Ehrlich's lead over Townsend in the Baltimore area is growing steadily, and the Republican-leaning voters in Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore are "coming home," Ehrlich continues to come up short in the voter-rich Washington suburbs.  We would expect to see the lion's share of resources in both campaigns spent in Montgomery and Prince George's Counties in the next seven weeks.

 

 

Comptroller and Attorney General

 

Incumbent William Donald Schaefer, having vanquished Democratic rival John Willis, leads Republican candidate Gene Zarwell 59% to 28%, with 13% undecided.

 

In the Attorney General's contest, incumbent Democrat Joe Curran leads Ed MacVaugh 54% to 29%, with 17% undecided.

 

 

Johnny Unitas Stadium

 

We asked Maryland voters if the Baltimore Ravens should relinquish their stadium naming rights – worth up to $100 million – in order to name the stadium in honor of the late, great Johnny Unitas, who died just last week.

 

Fifty-two percent of those surveyed – and 61% of the men – said that the Ravens should relinquish their rights regardless of the financial hit to the team, while 31% said they should not.  The remaining 17% gave no answer.

 


QUESTION:  If the November 2002 election for Governor and Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic ticket of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Charles Larson, or the Republican ticket of Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele?

 

 

 

Ehrlich/

Steele

Townsend/

Larson

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

47%

 

46%

 

7%

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore

 

53%

 

38%

 

9%

 

Baltimore City

 

26%

 

69%

 

5%

Baltimore Suburbs

 

62%

 

31%

 

7%

Washington Suburbs

 

34%

 

58%

 

8%

Western Maryland

 

57%

 

36%

 

7%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

56%

 

37%

 

7%

 

Women

 

38%

 

55%

 

7%

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

57%

 

35%

 

8%

African-American

 

14%

 

81%

 

5%

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

24%

 

69%

 

7%

 

Republican

 

87%

 

7%

 

6%

 

Independent

 

51%

 

38%

 

11%


Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

 

Unfavorable

 

 

Neutral

 

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend

 

39%

 

35%

 

25%

 

1%

 

Bob Ehrlich

 

44%

 

21%

 

26%

 

9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the November 2002 election for Comptroller were held today, for whom would you vote:   William Donald Schaefer, the Democrat, or Gene Zarwell, the Republican?

                                                Schaefer           59%

                                                Zarwell 28%                

                                                Undecided        13%

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the November 2002 election for Attorney General were held today, for whom would you vote:   Joe Curran, the Democrat, or Ed MacVaugh, the Republican?

 

                                                Curran              54%

                                                MacVaugh       29%                

                                                Undecided        17%

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  As you may know, there is an effort to name the Ravens' stadium in Baltimore for Johnny Unitas, who died on Wednesday.  Should the Baltimore Ravens relinquish the stadium naming rights granted to them by the Maryland Stadium authority, which could be worth over 100 million dollars to the team, in order to name the stadium in honor of Johnny Unitas, or not?

 

 

 

 

 

Yes,

Relinquish

No, Don’t

Relinquish

 

No answer

 

Statewide

 

52%

 

31%

 

17%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

61%

 

33%

 

6%

 

Women

 

43%

 

29%

 

28%

 


Gonzales RM&S Maryland Polls

Gubernatorial Tracking

 

Townsend Name ID

August 2000 to Present

 

 

Date

Favorable

Unfavorable

Neutral

Don’t Rec

Aug 2000

54%

15%

22%

9%

May 2001

52%

20%

19%

9%

Sept 2001

53%

20%

22%

5%

Jan 2002

46%

26%

23%

5%

July 2002

41%

29%

27%

3%

Aug 2002

40%

31%

27%

2%

Sept 2002

39%

35%

25%

1%

 

 

 

Ehrlich Name ID

March 1999 to Present

 

 

Date

Favorable

Unfavorable

Neutral

Don’t Rec

Mar 1999

27%

10%

22%

41%

Aug 2000

21%

7%

26%

46%

Sept 2001

28%

8%

29%

35%

Jan 2002

32%

9%

28%

31%

July 2002

34%

10%

31%

25%

Aug 2002

38%

14%

35%

13%

Sept 2002

44%

21%

26%

9%

 

 

 

Townsend-Ehrlich Match-up

August 2000 to Present

 

 

Date

Townsend

Ehrlich

Undecided

Aug 2000

52%

29%

19%

Sept 2001

54%

31%

15%

Jan 2002

50%

35%

15%

July 2002

48%

41%

11%

Aug 2002

47%

43%

10%

Sept 2002

46%

47%

7%